The next cycle will most likely be divided into 3 different phases.
The first phase will be the early bull phase which will be characterized by hash rate and difficulty grinding higher. Hash price will also be recovering from painful lows while illiquid supplies rise as ETFs and long term holders accumulate. Additionally, realized prices will trend up with spot only modestly above short term holder realized price.
The second phase will follow the first and will be characterized by very high hash rate, rich miner margins and the slowing of growth of illiquid supplies as old hands distribute. On-chain profit metrics will also become extreme while spot will trade far above realized prices.
The last phase will be a bear or reset as always. In this phase difficulty and hash rate will wobble as inefficient miners capitulate and hashprice will revisit stress levels. The illiquid share of Bitcoin will quietly increase again as strong hands reload and realized prices will drift towards or above spot prices as the market digests late cycle buyers.
Final thoughts and conclusion
The halving may start the clock for price movement but the days of it deciding the direction of the story seem to be over. Miners, holders and on-chain flows have now replaced halving as the trajectory deciders. Watching these 4 metrics will not make Bitcoin simple but it will make the next cycle a lot less mysterious. And by the way, this is not financial advice, just the ramblings of a crypto enthusiast.
