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USD/JPY – H4 Analysis (1 Viewer)

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 USD/JPY – H4 Analysis (1 Viewer)

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skynoxon

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1️⃣ Current Context

  • USD/JPY is trading near 155.20–155.50 after a recent bullish run.
  • Price has pulled back slightly from recent highs, consolidating near key support.
  • Short-term trend remains bullish, but momentum is pausing, suggesting either a correction or a “reload” for the next upward push.

2️⃣ Technical Analysis

🔹 Support & Resistance

ZoneRole
155.00Immediate support / swing low
154.50Secondary support / 100 SMA confluence
155.80–156.00Near-term resistance / recent highs
156.50–156.80Next resistance / potential bullish extension

🔹 Chart Patterns

  • Ascending Channel: Higher highs and higher lows forming from recent swing low (~154.20) → bullish structure intact
  • Short-term Flag / Consolidation: Pullback near 155.20 → could precede continuation
  • Decision Zone: Price hovering near 155.20–155.50; direction depends on support reaction

🔹 Indicators

  • RSI: ~54 → neutral, momentum slightly bullish
  • MACD: Flattening → short-term pause in momentum
  • Moving Averages:
    • Price above 50 & 100 SMA → trend remains bullish
    • Pullback near 50 SMA may provide support for continuation

3️⃣ Price Action Scenarios

🔹 Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation

  • Trigger: Price holds above 155.00 support and forms bullish reversal candlestick
  • Targets:
    1. 155.80–156.00 (retest recent highs)
    2. 156.50–156.80 (next extension)
  • Stop-Loss: Below 154.80

🔹 Scenario 2 — Short-Term Correction

  • Trigger: Break below 155.00 support with momentum
  • Targets:
    1. 154.50–154.60 (support / SMA confluence)
    2. 154.00–154.20 (secondary support / trendline)
  • Stop-Loss: Above 155.50

4️⃣ Trading Strategy Ideas

  1. Buy-on-dip: Look for bullish reversal candlestick near 155.00 support
  2. Breakout trades: Enter on strong move above 155.80–156.00
  3. Scale positions: Partial entries at support or breakout to manage risk

5️⃣ Summary

  • Trend: Medium-term bullish; short-term consolidation near 155.20–155.50
  • Key support: 155.00, 154.50
  • Key resistance: 155.80–156.00, 156.50–156.80
  • Strategy: Watch for support bounce for continuation or break below 155.00 for correction

 
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