USD/JPY – Short-Bias Trade Setup
Market Bias: Neutral → Bearish below 156.50
Theme: Firmer JPY, intervention risk, USD momentum fading
Primary Setup – SELL RALLIES (Preferred)
Entry Zone:- 156.20 – 156.50
- 157.20 (above near-term supply)
Targets
- TP1: 156.00
- TP2: 155.50
- TP3: 154.80 (trail stop aggressively)
Position Sizing
- Conservative: Risk 0.5–1% of account
- Aggressive: Risk 1.5–2% (only with active management)
Alternative Setup – Break & Hold Buy (Lower Probability)
Counter-trend & intervention-sensitive
Buy Only If:
- 4H close above 156.60
- 156.70
- 156.10
Targets
- TP1: 157.20
- TP2: 158.00 (expect heavy selling / warnings)
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: 156.50 → 157.20 → 158.00
- Support: 156.00 → 155.50 → 154.80
Best Trading Sessions
- Tokyo → London overlap: Yen sensitivity highest
- New York open: USD data & flows can cause fake breakouts
Risk Notes
- Sudden Japan intervention headlines can move price 100–300 pips in minutes
- Avoid holding large size overnight without protection
- Trail stops once TP1 is hit