### 25. Weekly Forex Roadmap: Key Plans & Setups
As of December 8, 2025, the forex market remains range-bound with DXY testing 99.00 support amid mixed U.S. data and high Fed cut odds (87% for 25bps on Dec 10 per CME FedWatch). Majors like EUR/USD (1.1623, -0.17% daily) and GBP/USD (1.3318, -0.14%) show caution, while commodity pairs (AUD/USD at 0.6622) eye central bank holds. Volatility expected mid-week from RBA (Dec 9, hold at 3.60%), FOMC/BoC (Dec 10, Fed cut vs. BoC hold at 2.25%), and ECB CPI flash (Dec 11, est. 2.1% YoY). Bias: USD weakness if Fed dovish; CAD/AUD strength on holds. Aim for 3-5 trades, 1:2 R:R, trail stops on breakouts. Avoid overexposure pre-events.
Mon (Dec 8): Quiet open with thin liquidity; focus on range scans. EUR/USD consolidates 1.1600-1.1680 (prior highs/lows); buy dips >1.1620 targeting 1.1650 if RSI >50 on 1H. GBP/USD tests 1.3300 support—long above with stop 1.3270, aim 1.3360. USD/JPY (155.87) neutral; scalp 155.50-156.00. Low vol: Position small, monitor Sentix confidence (10:00 GMT).
Tue (Dec 9): RBA decision (03:30 GMT, hold expected 94% priced); dovish tone boosts AUD/USD from 0.6620 dip to 0.6650. Pre-event: Short USD/CAD <1.3840 (BoC hold bias) targeting 1.3800. EUR/USD breakout watch >1.1680 post-German data; if ECB CPI preview softens euro, target 1.1580. Risk: AUD vol spike; use 20-pip stops.
Wed (Dec 10): FOMC (19:00 GMT, 87% cut odds to 3.50-3.75%) + BoC (15:45 GMT, hold at 2.25%). Dovish Fed rhetoric = DXY <99, long EUR/USD >1.1650 to 1.1720 (Fib 61.8%), short USD/CAD <1.3820 to 1.3700 (CAD jobs strength). Hawkish surprise: USD/JPY >156 to 157. Post-event: Trail longs on commodity pairs; expect 80-pip swings.
Thu (Dec 11): ECB CPI flash (10:00 GMT, est. 2.1% YoY, core 2.4%) drives euro. Beat >2.2% = EUR/USD pullback to 1.1580; miss <2.0% eyes 1.1728. Pair with UoM sentiment (10:00 EST) for USD clues. Setup: Long GBP/USD on 1.3320 hold targeting 1.3400 if risk-on. Volatility pocket: JPY crosses if BoJ echoes (no meeting).
Fri (Dec 12): Data-light close; trim positions on UoM revisions (10:00 EST). Review weekly: Bounce NZD/USD >0.5780 to 0.5820 if EM flows strong. Gold >$4,210 long to $4,300 on DXY weakness. De-risk: Close swings by NY close, book 1% gains.
Overall: Fed cut favors EUR/GBP longs, RBA/BoC holds lift AUD/CAD shorts vs. USD. Monitor DXY <98.28 for EM rally; 0.5-1% daily moves likely. Trade plan: 60% longs on majors, 40% scalps; max 2% risk per trade.
As of December 8, 2025, the forex market remains range-bound with DXY testing 99.00 support amid mixed U.S. data and high Fed cut odds (87% for 25bps on Dec 10 per CME FedWatch). Majors like EUR/USD (1.1623, -0.17% daily) and GBP/USD (1.3318, -0.14%) show caution, while commodity pairs (AUD/USD at 0.6622) eye central bank holds. Volatility expected mid-week from RBA (Dec 9, hold at 3.60%), FOMC/BoC (Dec 10, Fed cut vs. BoC hold at 2.25%), and ECB CPI flash (Dec 11, est. 2.1% YoY). Bias: USD weakness if Fed dovish; CAD/AUD strength on holds. Aim for 3-5 trades, 1:2 R:R, trail stops on breakouts. Avoid overexposure pre-events.
Mon (Dec 8): Quiet open with thin liquidity; focus on range scans. EUR/USD consolidates 1.1600-1.1680 (prior highs/lows); buy dips >1.1620 targeting 1.1650 if RSI >50 on 1H. GBP/USD tests 1.3300 support—long above with stop 1.3270, aim 1.3360. USD/JPY (155.87) neutral; scalp 155.50-156.00. Low vol: Position small, monitor Sentix confidence (10:00 GMT).
Tue (Dec 9): RBA decision (03:30 GMT, hold expected 94% priced); dovish tone boosts AUD/USD from 0.6620 dip to 0.6650. Pre-event: Short USD/CAD <1.3840 (BoC hold bias) targeting 1.3800. EUR/USD breakout watch >1.1680 post-German data; if ECB CPI preview softens euro, target 1.1580. Risk: AUD vol spike; use 20-pip stops.
Wed (Dec 10): FOMC (19:00 GMT, 87% cut odds to 3.50-3.75%) + BoC (15:45 GMT, hold at 2.25%). Dovish Fed rhetoric = DXY <99, long EUR/USD >1.1650 to 1.1720 (Fib 61.8%), short USD/CAD <1.3820 to 1.3700 (CAD jobs strength). Hawkish surprise: USD/JPY >156 to 157. Post-event: Trail longs on commodity pairs; expect 80-pip swings.
Thu (Dec 11): ECB CPI flash (10:00 GMT, est. 2.1% YoY, core 2.4%) drives euro. Beat >2.2% = EUR/USD pullback to 1.1580; miss <2.0% eyes 1.1728. Pair with UoM sentiment (10:00 EST) for USD clues. Setup: Long GBP/USD on 1.3320 hold targeting 1.3400 if risk-on. Volatility pocket: JPY crosses if BoJ echoes (no meeting).
Fri (Dec 12): Data-light close; trim positions on UoM revisions (10:00 EST). Review weekly: Bounce NZD/USD >0.5780 to 0.5820 if EM flows strong. Gold >$4,210 long to $4,300 on DXY weakness. De-risk: Close swings by NY close, book 1% gains.
Overall: Fed cut favors EUR/GBP longs, RBA/BoC holds lift AUD/CAD shorts vs. USD. Monitor DXY <98.28 for EM rally; 0.5-1% daily moves likely. Trade plan: 60% longs on majors, 40% scalps; max 2% risk per trade.